Trump seems increasingly inclined to pile on and attack the Iranians. His comments may just be an effort to add to his negotiating leverage, but what if they’re not? What are the pros and cons of entering the fray?
The principal benefit is that the Israelis have gained control of the skies to the point that an attack on Fordow is close to risk-free. A successful attack would unquestionably set the Iranian nuclear program back several years. That would eliminate the direct danger to Israel and the potential second-level threats to the United States for quite some time.
But risks remain. There are no guarantees that the bombs would work. Even if they do, Iran will still retain some degree of nuclear expertise and funds to purchase new nuclear assets from bad actors on the market; in other words, the setback to the program will only be temporary. In the meantime, the Iranians will have a menu of retaliatory options. Gas prices will go up dramatically. There will be plenty of economic wreckage. And, of course, we will be committing ourselves to be Bibi’s lawn guy for the foreseeable future; this will be yet another war of indefinite duration in the Middle East.
On balance, a diplomatic solution is still the best option.