Month: May 2025

Donald Trump started his second term as an elderly lame duck. Now his poll ratings are a potential threat to every GOP member of Congress. Does that mean we can expect more independence from them?

Not immediately, because most of them live in safe districts in which the greatest threat would be from a MAGA primary challenger, not a Democrat. If MAGA starts to splinter, however–and that could happen during a battle for the succession between the midterms and the 2028 election–the story could change.

On the one hand, the Medicaid cuts contemplated by the House will cost millions of Americans–many of them MAGA voters–their health insurance, and several GOP House members in swing districts their seats. On the other hand, pulling back from the cuts will force the GOP to either reduce the size of their tax cut or find another reliable source of revenue. That won’t be acceptable to the CLs in the House.

How will the circle be squared? By pushing responsibility on to state governments and pretending the cuts only address waste and fraud. That is unlikely to work, because the millions of people who lose their insurance will not identify themselves as either waste or fraud.

Imagine that Trump manages to bring trade with China to a complete halt. American companies dependent on revenues from exports to China would be ruined. At home, shelves would be empty, and prices would skyrocket. It would be a disaster.

But the trade deficit would be reduced to zero. According to Trump, that would make us rich again. Does that make sense to you?

David French argues that the religious right has become absorbed into the MAGA movement as a whole; it no longer has any independent existence. Is he right?

I agree with French on most things, but not this. The religious right gives unconditional support to the pagan Trump because it is convinced that only he can save it from cultural annihilation. It consequently is willing to tolerate whatever tactical retreats Trump deems necessary to protect his position at the national level. It will continue to pursue its particular interests in litigation and at the state level, however, and when Trump is out of the picture and MAGA splits, it will go its own way.

A large segment of the GOP is highly invested in the independence of Taiwan. Trump is not of their number; he sees Taiwan as just another freeloader, and he probably (and with some reason) doubts it can be successfully defended. What does that mean for Taiwan’s future?

I suspect that Trump sees Taiwan as his primary negotiating chip with Xi. He will promise not to defend it in exchange for a managed trade agreement and a free hand in the Western Hemisphere. It is a deal that Xi just might take, since it would effectively turn all of Asia into a Chinese sphere of influence.

The hawkish members of the GOP will be outraged, but they will keep quiet in public. No matter what indignity Trump inflicts on them, they will swallow it to maintain party unity and keep the left at bay.

To no one’s surprise, Mike Waltz has the distinction of being the first prominent Trump appointee to be removed from his job. In this case, however, Trump has given him a different job, perhaps in a futile effort to convince us that he doesn’t hire complete incompetents.

Hey, at least Waltz lasted longer than Michael Flynn. That’s something.

If history is any guide–and it usually is–Trump will appoint an establishment type to play a good cop, and the world will breathe a sigh of relief. That will be a mistake, because the good cops answer to the bad cop.

The crisis is coming. How will you know it’s here? When Trump unleashes the might of the military and federal law enforcement against American citizens whose only crime is to oppose him.

What will cause the crisis? It won’t happen until Trump feels threatened by the opposition. When will it occur? When the threat becomes intolerable to him, and when he is certain of the unconditional loyalty of the military and law enforcement. That could be as late as the 2028 election. But it could be earlier–around the midterms or in response to an unfavorable Supreme Court decision, a mass demonstration, effective blue state resistance, a self-created financial crisis, or a dangerous international event.

How will America react? TBD. One thing is for certain, however; history shows that a ruthless and single-minded minority with guns can get what it wants even against the will of a large majority.

We are already starting to hear it from some corners of the new administration–a recession would be good for the nation’s soul. We have become too concerned about material things, and not enough about God and the overall welfare of the community. A little suffering will refocus us, and for the better. Fewer toys for Christmas, and more Jesus.

The problem, of course, is that the administration is run by the richest man in the world and a former casino owner who likes nothing more than bragging about how wealthy he is. Is anybody going to accept the message about materialism from them?

Donald Trump is a pure pagan; his ethics revolve around power and money, and there is no room in his mental universe for any god but himself. So is Elon Musk; in fact, “Empathy is the enemy” may well be the least Christian statement ever made. In spite of this, American Christians have embraced these two men and their agendas. Why?

Because they have permitted themselves to believe that they face extermination at the hands of people who believe in Christian ethics, but not metaphysics–liberals, in other words. Only pagans, in their eyes, are strong and ruthless enough to save them, and power, not persuasion, is the way to get it done.

This will not end well for the Christians. Deliberately associating your movement with chaos and cruelty is not a good way to win hearts and minds.

On the once-again President Trump.

Falling polls turned him into a grump.

He tells us to trust

But he sounds like Liz Truss

And we’re heading straight into a slump.