I’m reading a lot of rumblings that the Senate plans significant changes to the House bill. Is that likely to happen?
The ideological makeup of the Senate, at least as it pertains to taxing and spending issues, mirrors that of the House. Johnson and Paul are the Senate equivalents of, say, Massie and Chip Roy; they are unhappy about the increase in the deficit, and they may well vote no. Hawley purports to be an economic populist, but he is extremely ambitious and stands to lose if he bucks the party line; he will, in the end, cave and vote yes. McConnell, Collins, and Murkowski have issues with Trump on lots of other issues, but not on taxing and spending priorities. They voted for the 2017 bill, and they will do it again. All of the others just want to keep Trump and the donor class happy, so they will vote for whatever is put in front of them.
In short, something very similar to the House bill will scrape through with a one or two vote majority after lots of grunting and groaning. Then J.D. Vance will tell us that legislation which primarily helps the rich and cuts food and medical benefits for struggling white workers is consistent with MAGA ideology because it temporarily eliminates taxes on overtime and tips.