On Trump and Taiwan

A large segment of the GOP is highly invested in the independence of Taiwan. Trump is not of their number; he sees Taiwan as just another freeloader, and he probably (and with some reason) doubts it can be successfully defended. What does that mean for Taiwan’s future?

I suspect that Trump sees Taiwan as his primary negotiating chip with Xi. He will promise not to defend it in exchange for a managed trade agreement and a free hand in the Western Hemisphere. It is a deal that Xi just might take, since it would effectively turn all of Asia into a Chinese sphere of influence.

The hawkish members of the GOP will be outraged, but they will keep quiet in public. No matter what indignity Trump inflicts on them, they will swallow it to maintain party unity and keep the left at bay.