The latest theory I have read regarding Trump’s chaotic tariff tactics is that the rest of the world, once suitably browbeaten into mutually beneficial agreements, will then ally itself with us against China. Does the theory make sense, and can it succeed?
The central tenets of “‘America First” are that: America has interests, but no friends; the point of negotiations is to dominate your adversary, not to reach agreements that benefit both sides; and the objective of the trade war is to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US and eliminate bilateral trade deficits, not just to contain China and protect vital supply chains. None of this is consistent with “friendshoring,” which assumes that trade deficits will continue, but with friendly countries instead of China.
What the commentators are suggesting is the accomplishment of Biden’s ends of flexible containment and “friendshoring” through Trumpian bullying. It cannot work, and it probably won’t be tried.