The principal reason the Democrats lost in 2024 was public dissatisfaction, deserved or not, with the state of the economy. A related reason was that the Democrats had no viable plan to improve matters due to the operation of the McConnell Project; there was no way to get enough votes in the Senate for legislation to replace the dollar store economy, and the Supreme Court now has the final say on regulations it doesn’t like. What does this mean for 2026 and 2028?
For 2026, it doesn’t mean much; the Democrats will be able to run simply on the mistakes and the overreaching of the new administration. But in 2028, they will have to decide whether they will campaign as a voice for simple competence with no great (and therefore divisive) vision for the future or as a populist party determined to crush the dollar store and the techno-aristocracy by eliminating the filibuster and reforming the judiciary. If Trump is perceived as a failure, the former course will be safer, if uninspiring; if he is viewed as a success, the latter will be a necessity.