I made four predictions in December 2023. Two of them were unequivocally accurate; Labour won the election, and China did not invade Taiwan. I’m not entitled to many prizes for those. On Ukraine, I predicted that the stalemate would continue, and that both sides would scale down and wait for the American election. This was partly true; progress has been slow and bloody, but the Russians have clearly gained the upper hand, and they continued to escalate instead of waiting on events.
I also said the Middle East would seethe but not explode, with the war in Gaza continuing for no obvious reason except Bibi’s survival. I would call that mostly true, but I did not foresee the degree to which Israel would degrade Hezbollah’s forces and embarrass the Iranians. 2025 consequently has the potential for dramatic change–possibly for better, possibly for worse–with regard to the imperiled regime in Iran.