I declined to predict the winner of the presidential race in December of 2024, but I suggested that it would come down to about 100,000 voters in swing states, and that the polls would look better for Biden at that point than they did in late 2023. All of that came true. I also correctly predicted that the GOP would win a narrow majority in the Senate, that the margin of victory in the House would be microscopic, and that there would be no Trump trials until after the primaries were effectively over. I was right about all of those matters, too.
My subsequent predictions were less accurate. Trump did not pick either of my choices for VP, largely because, at that point, he no longer thought it was necessary. Given the tenor of the campaign, I figured a political figure of some sort would be the subject of an assassination attempt, but I never would have guessed it would be Trump. Finally, I was correct in concluding that inflation and interest rates would be coming down by the time of the election, but I was too optimistic in thinking that it would make much of a difference. The bottom line was that the American public was unalterably convinced, rightly or wrongly, that the economy had performed dismally during the Biden years long before November. That is the reason Trump won–period.