On the Supremes and Abortion Extraterritoriality

I predicted some time ago that the legal frontier on abortion would involve the extraterritorial application of red state laws in blue states. As I understand it, this is already happening; the great state of Texas is taking action against an abortion provider in, I believe, New York who mailed pills to a Texas resident. How will these cases turn out?

I can imagine three different fact situations: the one described above; a doctor performs an abortion on a red state resident in a state in which the abortion is legal; and a red state tries to prosecute blue state residents for putting information about obtaining an abortion on the web. My guess is that the Supreme Court decides that the first provider is subject to Texas law, because he deliberately took an action that had direct effects within the boundaries of Texas, but that the other two actors are protected by blue state laws, because their actions are not sufficiently connected to the particular red state to meet requirements of federalism and due process.