As I’ve noted before, Trump essentially delegated his Latin America portfolio to Marco Rubio in his first term. Rubio was the mastermind behind the well-meaning but unsuccessful efforts to unseat Maduro. Misery ensued, and millions of Venezuelans left the country–some for America. Trump then used the Venezuelan refugees as an argument against the weakness of Biden’s immigration policy. In effect, he profited from his own failure.
But Trump and Rubio will own Venezuela the minute they take office, and they will find their choices unpalatable. If they turn the screws even further on Maduro, it will result in more unwanted refugees and higher gas prices. If they don’t, it will be an admission that the original policy of maximum pressure in the name of liberal democracy was a costly mistake, and they will look like sell-outs to the rabid right-wingers in Florida who want regime change.
Which of these bad options will they choose? Would they consider a more extreme solution–military intervention–to avoid them? TBD.