I expect Trump to start threatening Iran the day he takes office. For once, he will be right; for the reasons I listed in the previous post, the Islamic Republic has never been so vulnerable. A few months from now, the regime may have a bomb, so time is of the essence. But what should the American objective be–a new deal on missiles and proxy forces as well as the bomb, or regime change?
Bibi will be calling for regime change every chance he gets. But Xi and Putin will say no; the latter may even threaten the use of nukes in Ukraine if Trump goes too far. The Sunni Arab states, which would have led the charge for regime change in past years, will probably urge restraint, as well.
Trump likes to make deals. I think he will sell out the regime’s critics within Iran and limit his demands to missiles, proxies, and the bomb.