In 2020, the polls suggested a blue wave was imminent, but it did not happen. Biden won the popular vote comfortably, but the electoral vote was decided by a relative handful of votes in swing states. The Democrats won a tiny majority in the House–I believe they actually lost seats–and a second tiny majority in the Senate due to a favorable playing field.
In 2024, Trump won a small victory in the popular vote and a larger one in the Electoral College. With the advantage of a favorable playing field, the GOP won a majority by taking three Senate seats in bright red states and a fourth by a microscopic margin in Pennsylvania. The composition of the House basically remained exactly the same.
What conclusions should we draw from this? That while most votes in presidential elections are cast on the basis of ideology and identity, the actual outcome is determined by perceptions of the state of the country on the date of the election. In 2020, the wild card was Trump’s covid response; in 2024, it was inflation. The electorate, however, does not blame members of Congress for the perceived performance of the president. House races, in particular, are determined purely by ideology and identity.
What does this mean for 2028? That Trump and the GOP, having promised voters that a radical reactionary program will recreate the economy of 2019, had better deliver, or the pendulum will go right back to where it was in 2020.