Here’s the history: in 2008 and 2012, America chose a liberal black man over a conservative white guy; in 2016, it preferred a reactionary white guy to a white woman; in 2020, it picked an old white liberal man over the reactionary; and in 2024, it elected the reactionary white guy instead of a liberal black woman. What are we to make of this?
Here are three potential theories:
- America is irredeemably racist and sexist. Trump’s victory in 2024 proves it.
- The MAGA portion of the electorate is racist and sexist, but the outcome of each election was determined by facts specific to it. In 2016, Trump won largely due to Hillary Clinton’s legal issues and general unpopularity; in 2020, he lost because his response to the pandemic was inadequate; and in 2024, he won because America was unhappy with the Biden economy.
- America is not irredeemably racist, but it is sexist. It will never elect a woman president.
The identity left prefers #1, but it simply doesn’t fit the facts, because it is inconsistent with the outcomes in 2008 and 2012. #2 is completely consistent with the record. #3 is possible, but there is every reason to believe that Biden would have done even worse, so I would call it unproven.