On Bibi’s Retaliation Options

Imagine that you are Bibi Netanyahu (it’s hard, I know). You are still evaluating your retaliation options. What do you do?

The first logical choice is to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities. The problem here is that you can’t do it without American help, and even then, you might not succeed. In addition, the dynamics of the situation are different than they were in the Trump era; the Iranian nuclear program is far more advanced, and Iran is now effectively an ally of Russia. What you destroy, Putin might replace. This is not a viable option.

The second possibility is to bomb Iran’s oil production facilities. This will cause major economic pain, but the pain won’t be limited to Iran; it will be felt by everyone in the world except the Russians. The international community will be outraged. This probably isn’t a good idea, either.

Your ultimate goal should be regime change. If you attack Revolutionary Guard personnel and facilities and prove to the Iranian people that the repression machine can be defeated, it might move the populace to revolution, either now or in the future, when the Supreme Leader is gone. Why not try it?