The GOP has become nothing more than a vehicle for the erratic and opportunistic policy prejudices of Donald Trump. It stands for, in the immortal words of Ben Sasse, “the weird worship of one dude.” But what if Trump loses again? Will the GOP remain a kind of cult of the orange man, or will it develop a coherent program that fits within the parameters of liberal democracy?
That decision will be made by the base, which means the Haley wing of the party won’t be running the show any time soon. Trump will have some say in that decision even in the unlikely event that he winds up in jail. The real issue, however, revolves around the future of MAGA once it is forced to mutate into a more consistent ideology in the absence of its preferred leader. What does Trumpism mean when it is no longer tied to the whims and personality of Trump?
MAGA could completely embrace the communitarian vision of the Godly Society, which does not have Trump’s complete support. If so, J.D. Vance will be the next party leader. If not, it could move more towards a mixture of selective libertarianism for reactionaries and genuine economic populism or turn more towards using the power of the state to eradicate wokeness. DeSantis is the obvious choice if the party goes with the latter option.
I’m just speculating here, but I think the base is more libertarian than communitarian in its attitudes. The Godly Society in its entirety–a fundamentally Catholic idea in a land of Protestants and agnostics– is going to be a hard sell for Vance, and fighting wokeness turned out to be a losing issue for DeSantis. I suspect the next Republican leader will be none of the above.