Some right-leaning commentators who are otherwise unsympathetic to Trump are starting to argue that he nonetheless does not present a real threat to American liberal democracy. Here are their rationales:
- Sure, Trump can sound like a dictator at times, but he doesn’t have an interest in being one. The record of his first term proves it.
- OK, maybe he does want to be a dictator, but he just doesn’t have the ability to pull it off. He will always be a man on golf cart, not horseback.
- OK, maybe he does want to be a dictator, and now has the ability to make himself one. The guardrails will hold. The courts will restrain him, and the military won’t follow illegal orders.
My responses to these are as follows:
- What the record really shows is that Trump repeatedly tried to behave as an authoritarian in his first term but was thwarted by what he calls the “deep state.” That kind of resistance is unlikely the second time around. Part of his agenda is to make sure it doesn’t.
- Trump will never make a perfect authoritarian, given the limits of his personality, but not all dictators are hard workers or successful bureaucrats. Stalin was, but Hitler wasn’t. If Trump hires the right people to enable his worst impulses, and he probably will, his second term will be much worse than his first.
- Trump and Vance have already made it clear that they don’t intend to obey court orders that, in their view, thwart the will of the American people. Trump will also be in a position to appoint loyalists to top military jobs. Can we count on them to obey the Constitution instead of Trump? Is that a risk you really want to run?
The bottom line here is that I don’t know that Trump will try to make himself a dictator, but I know he is capable of trying, and that neither impeachment nor the criminal law will deter him, given the events of the last few years. Leaving aside the many stupid ideas he has about policy, that is enough reason for supporters of liberal democracy to vote against him.