Assume that Gore had succeeded in flipping about 500 votes in Florida and had won the election. How would America and the world have been different today?
The 9/11 attack certainly would have been attempted. While some commentators have been extremely critical of the Bush administration’s intelligence work, I think you have to assume the terrorists would have been successful. Gore would undoubtedly have attacked Afghanistan in the same manner that Bush did. There is no compelling reason to believe the course of that war would have changed. The big difference, however, is that Gore probably would have ignored the calls for war against Iraq from the right. As a result, Saddam would have remained in power.
Would Iraq with Saddam have been a better place than it is today? If you’re a Shiite living there or an official in the Iranian government, the answer is clearly no. For the rest of the world, the answer is yes. Saddam was a brute, and was difficult to manage, but he helped keep Iran and Sunni fundamentalists in check. There would be no Shiite militias attacking American bases in Iraq, and ISIS would never have raised its ugly head. Iran would have fewer resources to send to its proxies in Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen. There would be more oil on the world markets. Life, on the whole, would be better.
And what of American politics? Without the war in Iraq, there would have been no rationale for an Obama campaign in 2008. Either Hillary Clinton or McCain would have been Gore’s successor. Try imagining how that would have turned out.