I was a true independent until 2004; I voted for both Republicans and Democrats in presidential elections until that date. With only one exception, I don’t regret those votes, including the one for Dole in 1996. The exception is my vote for Bush in 2000. If I and a few hundred other Floridians had known what was coming, history might have been very different.
It has always perplexed me at a certain level that Gore lost in 2000. America was at peace; America’s standing in the world had never been stronger; and the economy was roaring. How could Gore turn that into a losing hand? The answer, I think, has two parts: Gore’s personality put people off; and the stakes in the election didn’t appear to be very high. There were no storm clouds on the horizon, until, of course, there were.
How does 2024 stack up against 2000? There are two important similarities: the election is likely to be extremely close, and, regardless of what the GOP candidates say, the country is enjoying both peace and prosperity. The big differences are plain for everyone to see: liberal democracy is under threat; and Trump, unlike Gore, will refuse to concede if he loses and unsuccessfully exhausts his legal remedies. Nobody will vote thinking that nothing is at stake this time.
In what ways would the world be different if Gore had prevailed? For that intriguing counterfactual, see my next post.