Plenty of foreign leaders have a vested interest in the outcome of the American election. Which ones are most likely to take action on behalf of Trump?
Let’s start by dismissing three possible contenders. The Chinese leadership is having trouble deciding whether the long-term diplomatic gain from a Trump victory is worth the short-term economic pain and uncertainty. Iran has no incentive to see Trump elected. And MBS, who has the power to sway the vote by jacking up gas prices, has clearly made his peace with Biden. Don’t expect any action on that front.
That leaves Putin and Netanyahu. For Putin, a Trump victory is the gift that keeps on giving; it would almost certainly mean the imposition of a favorable peace in Ukraine, and it could well result in the end of NATO, an objective he could not possibly accomplish on his own. A fall breakthrough in Ukraine would discredit Biden and Harris and help win the election for Trump. Can he do it?
Probably not. Disinformation probably won’t win the election this time around, either. He could drive up the price of gas by withholding Russian oil from the market, but he can’t afford to do that during wartime. The most plausible tactic would be a cyberattack, but that would invite retaliation and would consequently be very risky. On the whole, therefore, a Russian action that would be decisive in the election is fairly unlikely.
The other open Trump ally is Bibi. Trump would give him a blank check in Gaza and Lebanon and might even agree to attack Iran on his behalf. On the other hand, Trump is unreliable, and eliminating criticism from America would give the Israeli far right the ability to dictate the course of the government. Bibi would no longer be able to argue that he is the only man capable of navigating the tightrope between the extremists and the rest of the world. Does he really want to give that up?
Bibi also has to deal with the Israeli military, whose opinions are closer to Biden’s than to his, and the political implications of a wider war on the election are far from clear. On balance, I think he will keep his hands to himself and hope for the best, as he defines it.