I declined to make any predictions about the outcome of the presidential election in the early part of the year, which turned out to be wise; a lot of extraordinary things have happened since then, and the predictions I did make haven’t aged well. At this point, however, I am prepared to say that Harris will eke out a narrow victory if the following three things happen between now and November:
- The Fed lowers interest rates;
- Harris outperforms Trump during the debate; and
- There are no foreign policy crises that cause undecided voters to think the world would be better with Trump as president.
The condition that concerns me the most is #3, because there are external actors who have a stake in a GOP victory. I will identify them and discuss their motives and possible courses of action in a subsequent post.