There are two points of vulnerability for the prosecution in the Trump case. The first is the lack of corroboration for Cohen on the issue of Trump’s involvement in the reimbursement check scheme; the second concerns the relationship between the allegedly fraudulent records and a separate felony they were intended to further.
The latter point is primarily a legal question; it will be addressed in a jury instruction. Both sides will be fighting to get their legal interpretation of the New York statute included in the instructions. Whoever prevails in that battle, which will take place outside of the jury’s hearing, will probably win the case.
Based on the judge’s previous rulings and his perception of the behavior of the defense team, I’m betting on the prosecution, but we’ll have to wait and see.