McConnell knew it was time to go; his health was visibly declining, and he was starting to lose control of his MAGA members. His timing was impeccable; without the burden of speaking for his entire caucus, he is now free to advocate for Ukraine with fewer limits. But what happens when he goes? Is the Senate doomed to become yet another version of the House?
Not exactly. The combination of tradition and longer terms (leading to slower turnover) will prevent radical change in the short run. In addition, because senators represent entire states, there are no constituencies that are entirely bright red and rural. There is no doubt, however, that the MAGA influence will increase after the election unless the Democrats defy the odds and win a blowout victory. I’m not holding my breath on that one.
The real question is whether the filibuster survives without McConnell in the leadership if Trump wins and the GOP has a majority in the Senate. There will be enormous pressure to get rid of it to facilitate a national abortion ban. Collins and Murkowski will not vote for that, however. The filibuster will stay unless the GOP winds up with at least 52 Senate seats after November, which is possible, but pretty unlikely.