To be honest, China in the Mao years–a country with a growing population and a pathetically weak economy, based on agriculture–was kind of a Malthusian dystopia, so the one-child policy made some sense at the time. The CCP’s error was to refuse to change course as soon as conditions changed. Today, China has a declining worker base, an aging population, an inadequate welfare state, and an imbalance between males and females. It is a recipe for big trouble in the future.
Xi, of course, wants lots of babies, but not even the CCP can successfully make those kinds of demands on its citizens. Halfhearted attempts to expand the welfare state to accommodate working women have failed to produce the desired results. What should Xi do, and what will he actually do?
The logical way to solve the problem, in addition to building an economy based on consumption rather than investments in infrastructure, is to persuade Chinese men to play a much greater role in the rearing of children. Chinese women are not going to agree to take on that task when they are expected to work 72 hours a week outside the house. Unfortunately, prevailing social norms in China, as elsewhere, will be difficult to overcome. My prediction is that Xi, who is more accustomed to giving commands than using persuasion, will actually respond by making birth control much more difficult to get.