The Democrats retook the Santos seat last night. There were a raft of special circumstances in this special election, including snow, the degree of public attention, a Democratic quasi-incumbent, and the Santos factor, that warn us against drawing too many conclusions from it. That said, turnout was high in spite of the snow, which suggests that the Democrats have a good chance to retain the seat in November. What other lessons can we learn from yesterday?
I think House GOP dysfunction is starting to bite, which, along with a number of revised electoral boundaries all over the country, will help the Democrats win the House in November. I don’t think the results of one special election tell us anything meaningful about a Trump-Biden race, however. The principal issues in that campaign will be GOP extremism, Biden’s acuity, and the perceived state of the economy. The last of the three will make the ultimate difference, one way or the other.