From the perspective of the average GOP senator, it makes perfect sense to make a deal on the border and Ukraine aid. He doesn’t want Putin to win in Ukraine; his business constituents fear what Trump will do on the immigration issue; and he knows if Trump wins, the extremists will insist on raw populist legislation that will run afoul of the filibuster. Nothing will get done. The time to make a genuinely constructive deal, therefore, is now.
But from the perspective of the average GOP House member, things are quite different. His seat is safe, except for potential attacks from the right. He’s focused on winning the presidency. He knows the last thing Trump wants before the election is some sort of bipartisan deal that looks like a win for Biden and takes the teeth out of the border issue, which, more than anything, is Trump’s brand. He doesn’t want a negotiated legislative solution; he wants Trump to take unilateral, and probably illegal, actions to address the problem once and for all. For now, the problem, for him, is the point.
Mike Johnson needs to build credibility with the extremists in order to continue to make deals on the budget with Democrats, so he will go along with them on this issue. As a result, the deal won’t happen.