An NYT column makes the case that the closest analogy to 2024 is 1948; America had just experienced two years of high inflation, which was just starting to subside. Is the analogy appropriate?
Yes. The similarities go beyond inflation, poll numbers, and low unemployment:
- Both Biden and Truman were uncharismatic Democrats following much more celebrated predecessors;
- Both of them had third party challengers;
- Both of them had been successful in creating international coalitions against a formidable enemy; and
- Both of them had Republicans in Congress to use as a foil.
There are differences, however:
- Dewey was a risk-averse, eminently respectable liberal Republican, which makes him about as far from Trump as he could get;
- Biden’s party is far less divided than Truman’s, and the third party challenge is nowhere near as serious;
- The nation was far less polarized than it is today; and
- The New Deal and World War II were viewed by virtually everyone as successes for the federal government. The pandemic and the recovery from the resulting recession, not so much.
Like Truman, Biden is viewed as being a hapless, doomed candidate by many. He’s not. Does that mean he is destined to win? I don’t know.