Here’s what you can expect in 2024:
- THE MIDDLE EAST SEETHES, BUT DOES NOT EXPLODE: Netanyahu decides the best way to cling to power is to defy the world by completely pulverizing and indefinitely occupying Gaza. In spite of his current unpopularity at home, it works. The radical right starts talking more seriously about ethnic cleansing on the West Bank and even in Israel itself. The war, however, does not expand. Iran is too vulnerable, and too concerned with the succession, to do more than encourage its proxies to lob a few missiles at Israel. In the meantime, the momentum towards an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia disappears, and America stops providing diplomatic cover for the occupation. Israel is alone, which suits Bibi just fine.
- NO WAR OVER TAIWAN: Xi is busy with his domestic problems, and he doesn’t want to antagonize America during an election year.
- LABOUR WINS THE UK ELECTION: It takes place in the fall. Sunak resigns as head of the Conservative Party. The battle for the succession is going to be bloody.
- PLENTY OF PAIN IN UKRAINE: If, according to the World War I analogy, 2022 was 1914, and 2023 was 1915, does that mean we will have Verdun and the Somme in 2024? No. Both sides will retrench and wait on events–meaning, primarily, the outcome of the American election. The Ukrainians won’t have the resources to launch another major offensive, and the Russians will focus on relatively small-bore efforts to destroy the morale of the Ukrainians and their NATO supporters.