The abortion issue clearly fueled Democratic victories in Kentucky, Virginia, and Ohio last night. GOP leaders have consoled themselves by arguing that abortion will play a less important role in the 2024 election, which will have a much different electorate. Who is right here?
Both, and neither. It is true that abortion, by itself, will probably play a smaller role with a larger electorate in 2024. If the Democrats include abortion in an overall narrative in which the GOP is coming for everyone’s rights, however, it is likely to resonate with the voters. Americans may be reluctant to support new government programs, but they generally hate efforts to take away rights they have enjoyed for decades.