Finally fed up with contemptuous treatment by Margaret Thatcher, Sir Geoffrey Howe made a speech to the House of Commons in 1990 that contributed to the eventual demise of her government. He was known at that point as “the sheep that roared.”
The much-abused moderate House Republicans who are voting against Jordan, for a variety of motives, are doing essentially the same thing to the far right that Sir Geoffrey did in his day. If Jordan can’t intimidate them with threats about social media, Trump, Fox News, and possible primary opponents, he has no path to victory, because, given his personality and legislative record, he simply doesn’t have the ability to cut deals and make promises that McCarthy did. He apparently wants to keep trying, but he doesn’t really have any new cards to play, so I don’t see how he can succeed.
One of two things is going to happen to resolve the issue. Either the Democrats will make the decision for the GOP by acquiescing to a lesser of two evils candidate, or the GOP will find someone with a skimpy enough record and enough general credibility on the right to serve as an inkblot Speaker. If the latter happens, he will have to rely on McCarthy tactics, and he probably won’t last much longer than McCarthy did.
My bet is on the second option. There are 220 House Republicans; surely there is someone among them with the requisite ambition and lack of credentials to get the job.