There were always two plausible ways to resolve the debt ceiling crisis: an agreement between Democrats and a few moderate Republicans; or the use of the Fourteenth Amendment. Initially, I thought the first option was more likely; later, I changed my mind, because I thought the Fourteenth Amendment route would serve McCarthy’s interests better. As it turned out, I was right the first time. The agreement was reached, and McCarthy kept his job, but just barely.
This time, there’s no Fourteenth Amendment option as a Plan B. The only way the imminent shutdown ends is with an agreement between House Democrats and a few moderate Republicans based on the CR supported by the Senate. McCarthy has now done everything he can to move his plan forward, and failed, so the way is clear for the bipartisan approach.
When will that happen? When the political pain starts kicking in for the moderates, and not a minute before. Look for McCarthy to oppose bipartisanship vehemently in public to keep his support with the right, while actually encouraging it in private.