A few months ago, McCarthy, after much effort, managed to unite the House GOP around a ransom note that included most of the extreme demands of the Freedom Caucus. This doesn’t sound like much of an accomplishment on its face, but you haven’t dealt with the Freedom Caucus. He then used the ransom note to force Biden and the Democrats to negotiate over the debt ceiling. The ultimate outcome was an agreement that was fairly reasonable. McCarthy is trying the same tactic this time around, but has not succeeded in reaching an agreement with the Freedom Caucus yet. Will the result this time mirror the deal on the debt ceiling? Can a shutdown be avoided?
Yes and no. Yes, the shutdown will ultimately end with an agreement between moderate Republicans and the Democrats, with the Freedom Caucus left out in the cold. Given the extremism of the Freedom Caucus, there is no alternative. But no, we will go over the cliff this time, for three reasons. First, the stakes are much lower, so the parties have less motivation to reach an agreement. Second, the Freedom Caucus trusts McCarthy even less than before, so the GOP may not be able to rally around a ransom note. Third, presidential politics have intruded, with DeSantis supporting the extremists. That makes it even less likely that McCarthy can reach a consensus in his caucus.
This will end when it becomes obvious to the GOP moderates that the American public blames the GOP for reneging on the debt ceiling deal and forcing the shutdown. How long will that take? Longer that we would like.