An NYT poll shows Trump and Biden tied at 43 percent. The question you should be asking is, “Who the hell are the other 14 percent?”
My best guess is that it consists of three groups:
- Left-leaning young people who insist that there is no real difference between the two candidates;
- Transactional voters who want to see the state of the economy before they choose; and
- Anti-Trump conservative voters who want an alternative to Biden.
The good news here is that history suggests that all three of these groups will vote predominantly for Biden when the rubber hits the road. The perceived state of the economy will be the wild card.