As I’ve noted before, Trump is an identity politician–not an ideological one. That means he is under no obligation to be consistent from an ideological perspective; all he needs to do is say things that please his elderly white base. He is very good at that. It is what makes him difficult to beat, at least in a GOP primary.
DeSantis doesn’t have that advantage. His task at the beginning of the campaign was to choose a series of ideologically consistent positions different from Trump’s that would appeal to the majority of GOP voters. Logically, he could have done this in two different ways:
- He could have run as a national conservative, combining worker-friendly populist economics with a strong dose of social conservatism; or
- Based on his record during the pandemic, he could have postured himself as a Reaganesque freedom fighter, which would have pleased and united the donor class without offending the base.
He didn’t do either of those things. Instead, he put all of his money on fighting wokeness, which essentially made him an even less likable version of Ted Cruz trying to win votes from the immovable MAGA base instead of the persuadable GOP majority. To no one’s surprise, it is clear from the polls that this tactic has already failed. Now, you are seeing evidence that he is moving slowly to the center on issues such as January 6 and abortion, probably at the behest of his donors. At this stage, that will only make his message dissolve into complete incoherence and make his downfall even more inglorious.