One of Trump’s greatest “accomplishments” was to change the electoral model for GOP candidates. Before him, the typical candidate ran hard to the right during the primaries, but moved to the center to pick up swing votes during the general election; Trump, on the other hand, argued that electoral success required nonstop pandering to the base, with no pivot during the general election. The Trump model failed in 2018, 2020, and 2022, but most Republicans still adhere to it. What does that mean for the PBPs?
It means the GOP will assume they have nowhere else to go and take their votes for granted in 2024. And it means, if they want to be heard, they need to unite behind a candidate other than Trump or DeSantis who will take their concerns seriously, and stop talking so much about retribution and wokeness.