For whatever reason, Trump isn’t trying very hard to win in Iowa. He insulted the governor; he offended the anti-abortion activists; and he skipped campaign events. He may well not participate in most of the debates, as well. If he manages to prevail in Iowa in spite of all of this, the rest of the process will be a coronation. Nobody will have the resources and the momentum to stop him.
But assume for the moment that DeSantis takes advantage of the opportunity given to him, overwhelms Pence with grim determination and superior resources, and rides the social conservative vote to a narrow win in Iowa. He’s now roughly in the position that Cruz was in 2016. What happens next?
The DeSantis message of increasing government power to fight wokeness doesn’t resonate in libertarian New Hampshire. Christie, Scott, and Haley help to split the anti-Trump vote. Trump wins here by a fairly large margin even though he doesn’t have a majority.
Trump also wins in Nevada. Pence has already dropped out at this point, and Ramaswamy is a non-factor, since he doesn’t disagree with Trump on anything important. DeSantis doesn’t gain much traction in South Carolina, and Scott and Haley divide the hometown moderate vote. Trump wins, and Scott and Haley drop out, correctly seeing no realistic path to the nomination.
DeSantis is now effectively in a two-man race, which is what he wanted from the beginning. But he’s well behind, and he’s running out of resources. He absolutely has to win Florida to have a reasonable chance. Does he get it?
Probably not.