Like me, The Economist believes the Iranian theocracy may not survive the death of the current Supreme Leader. A recent article suggests that the new government would be controlled by the Revolutionary Guards; in a gesture intended to mollify public opinion, it would be less rigid on issues such as the hijab than the theocracy. Is that a reasonable prediction?
Only in the short run. A government run by and for the Revolutionary Guards would have no legitimacy in anyone’s eyes, as it would be operated and justified solely by force. I suspect one of two things would happen; either the theocracy would be maintained on paper to preserve the fiction that the government is mandated by God, or the new dictatorship would crumble at the first sign of adversity, to be replaced, in all likelihood, by something more democratic.