Month: May 2023

JESUS WAS AN ASS-KICKER

Jesus was an ass-kicker.

He preached in Galilee.

He didn’t come from a big town

Just folks like you and me.

___________

Jesus was an ass-kicker.

He took on the deep state.

And when the press would do him down

He’d return their hate.

______________

Jesus was an ass-kicker.

He always carried guns.

So when the Romans came for him

He didn’t have to run.

_______________

Jesus was an ass-kicker.

He hated all things blue.

He battled the establishment

And spat upon the Jews.

________________

Jesus was an ass-kicker.

He’ll save us from our woe.

Don’t you think he sounds a lot

Like someone else we know?

What position should the left take on the GOP primaries? Should we support Trump, because he would be easier to beat? Or should we go with DeSantis, because he would make a more “normal” GOP president?

Here are my thoughts on the matter:

1. Choosing between the American Orban and the 21st century Caligula is a waste of time and effort. They are equally horrendous in different ways, and in any event, it isn’t up to us.
2. The best outcome, from our perspective, would be one of the other candidates–someone who wouldn’t present a threat to liberal democracy. The chances of that happening are obviously quite slim.
3. The next best alternative is that Trump and DeSantis destroy each other and split the party. That is a realistic possibility, but only if DeSantis changes tactics and starts making a pitch to the 70 percent.
4. In short, at the present time, we should be rooting for DeSantis to become a more viable candidate. If he does, we’ll just sit back and watch the fur fly. If he doesn’t, we’re running the sequel to 2020.

What will the reactionaries do for an encore? That’s the question I raised a few days ago, but I couldn’t really answer it, except to say there would almost certainly be one. The pig case, however, has given me a plausible answer.

I think the red states will start putting the screws to businesses from blue states that don’t reflect their values. A logical place to start would be to prohibit the sale of goods that were created in any part by illegal immigrants, regardless of the point of origin. Can’t you imagine Florida and Texas adopting that kind of regulation? Of course, you can.

And the Supreme Court has now blessed it.

When Trump was in office, he showed little interest in cutting spending, ran huge deficits, and demanded that the debt ceiling be raised without conditions. At the CNN town hall, however, he said the GOP should run the car over the cliff if Biden doesn’t agree to everything in the ransom note. What should we take from this?

Three things. First, it is a frank admission that he is more interested in his own ambitions than the welfare of the American people. Second, he thinks a debt ceiling disaster would benefit him politically; he is almost certainly right about that. Third, he sees this issue, unsurprisingly, as a no-holds-barred struggle for dominance between Biden and the GOP. For him, every relationship and every interaction is a struggle for power, and he is determined that his side should win, the American people be damned.

Don’t think the GOP crazoids didn’t hear him. As a result, it will be even more difficult for McCarthy to make any sort of reasonable deal.

The DeSantis ship started springing leaks even before it was launched. Icebergs are looming if it doesn’t change course. Here’s what he needs to do to get back on course:

1. KNOW YOUR VOTERS: You’ve secured your right flank by pushing an avalanche of culture war regulations through the Florida Legislature. That will help you keep the extreme right on side during a general election campaign, but it won’t win over Trump voters; their support for their man is unconditional. Focus on the 70 percent, not the 30 percent, which means moving back to the center on issues that divide the GOP.
2. TOUGHEN YOUR LANGUAGE ON RUSSIA: Trump has the pro-Putin vote in his pocket. You need to be pro-Ukraine and pro-NATO if you want the support of the donor class.
3. BURY THE HATCHET WITH DISNEY: You can’t win without support from business, and business hates your war with Disney. It makes you look like a dictator. Make a deal and move on.
4. PROPOSE AN ECONOMIC PLAN THAT MAKES SENSE: Trump has no clue how to deal with inflation. Maybe you do. It would help.
5. TAKE A CLEAR POSITION OPPOSING TRUMP ON 1/6 AND THE “RIGGED ELECTION”: Yes, you will offend some of the Trump voters you will need in the general election, but they have nowhere else to go. If you agree with Trump on 1/6 and the election, you are throwing away your best argument against his candidacy–that he is a proven loser.
6. STOP SUPPORTING CONSPIRACY THEORISTS: Moderates aren’t going to like your attacks on vaccines and your complaints about George Soros. They make you look deranged. Shut up and move on.

To summarize, you need to agree with Trump on wokeness, but point out that you took effective action on those issues, as opposed to just talking about them. On most other issues, move to the center, talk about how great Ronald Reagan was, and don’t be afraid to mix it up with the man on golf cart. No one will respect you if you refuse to engage with him.

California enacted a regulation prohibiting the sale of pork products within the state if the pigs were not raised in an environment with a specified number of square feet. The regulation applied to pigs raised both inside and outside the state. The Supreme Court just ruled 5-4 that the California regulation was a valid exercise of the state’s police powers. The groupings of justices concurring and dissenting did not follow the usual partisan lines.

Why does this matter? Because American economic success is largely based on the existence of a single market, which is underpinned by judicial interpretations of the Commerce Clause. In today’s political climate, we can expect both blue and red states to be more aggressive in the regulation of business: blue states, largely for environmental reasons; and red states, in an effort to control “woke capital.” In addition, red state regulations against abortion are usually designed to have extraterritorial effect, just as the pig regulation in the instant case did. All of these initiatives will undermine, at least to some extent, the single market; all of them will be justified in the future by this decision.

Does the pig case mean a further balkanization of America? Since the vote was so close, it is hard to say. It certainly doesn’t help, however.

Peter Beinart tells us in the NYT that the left is generally pleased with Biden’s support of Ukraine, but worries he is pushing us into a new Cold War with China, which will result in higher defense spending and a sluggish international response to climate change. In other words, the left is softer on China than it is on Russia. Does that make sense?

All you have to do is look at a map to understand the strategic significance of Taiwan, which is clearly under threat from China. If the Chinese invade, or find a better way to take control of Taiwan, they will be the complete masters of their sphere of influence, and Japan and South Korea will inevitably become vassal states. This can only be prevented by patient diplomacy and a buildup of our military forces in the region. Both of these are happening as we speak.

I can’t help but think that the left dislikes Putin more than Xi because he purports to be an ally of Trump and the American right in a universal war against wokeness. If I’m correct, the left is almost as deluded as the right on this issue; Putin is a ruthless imperialist and an autocrat, not a champion of traditional values.

I, of course, have no idea what Biden and McCarthy said at their meeting a few days ago. Here’s what they should have said:

B: Kevin! Good to see you! How’s life hanging out with MTG?

M: It’s better than being with AOC.

B: AOC’s not crazy. She never said anything about Jewish death rays.

M: Got me there. Got anything else for me?

B: A plan, or at least a process. It saves America and lets you keep your job. I know the latter is more important to you than the former.

M: I’m all ears.

B: The premise behind this is that you can’t possibly deliver any kind of reasonable compromise without losing your job, which is of the utmost importance to you.

M: I won’t deny it.

B: With that in mind, we will spend the next week or so throwing out ideas to make a deal with your more moderate members. You will strain every nerve to keep them in line, of course. If we can make the deal, so much the better, but my guess is that you probably win on that.

M: Probably. Then what?

B: I tell America the Fourteenth Amendment, along with morality and good sense, requires me to pay the bills. We meet all of our obligations in the usual way.

M: I would oppose that, of course. I would be outraged.

B: Of course you would! But what can you and your caucus do? Are you really going to sue to stop the government from making Social Security payments? Are you really that suicidal? Even your craziest members would have concerns about that.

M: Some of them will want to sue, anyway. They really want to burn it down.

B: I don’t think it will be a majority. If it isn’t, the game’s over, because no private plaintiff is going to have standing. If you do sue, however, the Court will find that it is a political question and that it doesn’t have jurisdiction.

M: Maybe. So you win! How does this help me?

B: You get to stand firm against me. You never have to accept a division in your party. The crazoids stay in your camp.

M: It’s an interesting concept. We’ll see how it plays out. (He leaves)

California was a free state at the time of the Civil War, and it never adopted a system of de jure segregation, so on its face, the case for reparations against it is extremely weak. On the other hand, most of our really bad left-wing ideas come from the Golden State, so in that sense, we shouldn’t be surprised.

Since the proponents of reparations can’t rely on either state-mandated segregation or slavery as a basis for the payments, they focus on other factors, including redlining, disproportionate policing, health care, improper government takings, and actions to devalue black-owned businesses. There are two very serious problems with this approach. The first, of course, is that once you take slavery out of the equation, all you have left is the impacts of discrimination, which were also felt by groups other than black people. What about the pervasive and repulsive measures against Asians? What about Hispanics and Native Americans? Should they really have to pay higher taxes to fund payments to black people?

The second problem is that the effects of the various categories cited by the reparation proponents were not pervasive enough to justify making payments to all black people. To cite some examples:

1. While redlining undoubtedly occurred, it was not directed by the state, it is far from clear that anyone actually benefited from it, and most black people during the relevant timeframe probably didn’t have enough income to buy homes in excluded areas, anyway.
2. Most black people were not arrested for the possession or sale of illegal drugs, and there was a legitimate public health rationale for the regulations in question, however misguided they might seem in retrospect.
3. Most black people did not have property taken by the state, and if they did, it would be difficult to determine who was properly compensated, and who wasn’t.
4. During most of the relevant timeframe, the state’s involvement in health care was very limited.
5. Most black people didn’t own businesses, so compensating all black people for losses imposed by the state is illogical.

There are two things we can say with certainty about this plan. First, it will never be implemented, because California can’t afford it; and second, it will be the gift that keeps on giving to the GOP. Expect to hear a lot about it at the national level over the next two years.

Sutton was famously quoted as saying he robbed banks because that’s where the money was. Kevin McCarthy, on the other hand, wants to cut the deficit by going where the money isn’t: domestic discretionary spending.

According to an article in the NYT, if all of the GOP’s favorite categories–defense, veterans’ benefits, Social Security, Medicare, etc.– are exempted, the budget caps proposed by the House will require a 51 percent cut for all other discretionary spending over the next decade. Cuts of that magnitude will basically make it impossible for the federal government to carry out most of its essential functions.

Hence, the appeal to MAGA Republicans.

Biden and McCarthy are meeting today to discuss the debt ceiling. I can pretty well guarantee that no meaningful progress will be made. Then what?

Here’s how it will play out:

1. Efforts to detach reasonable Republicans from the rest of the party before the deadline will fail as a result of pressure applied by McCarthy. The country will be on the brink.
2. Biden goes on TV about 24 hours before the projected default day and announces he is relying on the Fourteenth Amendment to pay all of America’s obligations. Payments are made as usual. Markets fall, but do not collapse.
3. McCarthy is, or claims to be, outraged. But what can he do? If he and his GOP henchmen file suit to shoot the escaping hostage, they will pay a big political price for it, and the Supreme Court is likely to say the issue is non-justiciable. If he finds someone else to do his dirty work for him, his plaintiff will almost certainly lack standing. There are apparently no good options here.
4. Nevertheless, someone sues. The case goes to the Supreme Court, which refuses to hear it on the merits.
5. A massive world recession is averted.

Why do I say this will happen? Because all of the principals win under this scenario. Biden looks like a strong leader, unites the party behind him, staves off a disaster, and defangs the debt ceiling forever. McCarthy gets to keep his job, because he can justly say he did everything the MAGA crowd wanted him to do. The Supreme Court enhances its standing in the eyes of the public without actually ruling against the GOP on the merits. Mitch protects the donor class. The moderates who refused to flip protect their wealthy constituents without having to vote against the base. Even Trump and the MAGA base get something they want–more fuel for the outrage machine and another issue for a fundraising letter. Since they’re typically more mouth than action, this result should be right in their wheelhouse.

It’s perfect, unless you’re Putin or Xi.

Years ago, I noted the discrepancy between what Republicans said they wanted and what they actually did and predicted that this would soon come to an end. Red state legislatures, particularly but not exclusively Florida’s, are proving me right. The dam has broken. Reactionaries are using their muscle to get exactly what they want; the PBPs have lost the power and the will to stop them.

But now that the anti- agenda (anti-trans; anti-gay; anti-immigrant; anti-free speech; anti-abortion, etc.) has been put in place, what’s next? Will the reactionaries take their winnings and go home, or will they find some other supposed existential threat to their culture, and ban it?

I honestly don’t know where the frontier is for the reactionaries, but the national experience with guns suggests that there will always be one. There will be a whole new crop of grievances to legislate against next time around.

As I’ve noted before, what business interests want from government–even more than tax cuts and deregulation–is recognition that they are job-creating supermen who make the American economy go. In other words, R-E-S-P-E-C-T, and lots of it.

DeSantis’ war on “woke capital,” and his battle with Disney in particular, flies directly in the face of that priority. DeSantis needs the support of businessmen desperately to win the nomination, but he can’t reasonably expect it if he continues to tell them that they have to shut up and play by his rules. There are, after all, other fish in the sea.

Ron DeSantis should make the virus his running mate, because it made him a right-wing star. Whether you agreed with him or not–and I didn’t–the living thanked him for setting the Florida economy free, and the dead weren’t around to vote against him. He went from an obscure, relatively moderate governor to a reactionary celebrity practically overnight.

But the virus is no longer a big part of our lives. It certainly won’t be by 2024. So why would primary voters give him much credit for dealing with it?

They won’t. That’s the reason he has moved on to the broader issue of wokeness.

The legal battle has barely begun, but Alvin Bragg has already lost the public relations war. He has tried to place the indictment in the broader context of election fraud, but the right’s narrative–that he is a political hack looking to advance his career by taking down a president over a mere paperwork problem–is winning. Even winning the case, at this point, might not be enough to change the public’s perceptions.

The Jean Carroll case is a different matter. Trump’s attorneys are essentially putting on a criminal defense with no witnesses in a civil case with a much lower burden of proof. It is hard for me to see how they can win under those circumstances. If they don’t, Trump will run his campaign labeled by a jury as a rapist, and he won’t be able to blame either the judge or a prosecutor for his problems. Are 2024 swing voters likely to be concerned about that? Will the Never Trumpers and the AATs be emboldened? One would have to think so.