The Electoral College will operate in the GOP’s favor in 2024, of course. In addition, the Democrats will have to defend a majority of the contested Senate seats. We don’t know what the economy will look like at the time of the election, or where the war will stand. On its face, there are plenty of reasons for pessimism. Do the Democrats have any offsetting advantages?
Yes. The GOP, regardless of who their nominee is, will be running as the party that wants to take your rights away. An essentially conservative electorate is skeptical of new government programs, but it won’t respond favorably to any attempts to deprive it of what it already has.