Assad has won the war–after all, he’s still in power–but he’s lost the peace. He still doesn’t control large areas within Syria’s boundaries. The other Arab states may want to improve relations with him, but they won’t invest any money in his ruined country. Russia and Iran, his patrons, have plenty of other, more pressing problems to confront. What can he do to make his situation better?
Cut a deal with Turkey. He has more in common with Erdogan than either of them would like to admit. He should agree to tolerate Turkish incursions into his country and a forced return of refugees in exchange for some investment. Both parties would benefit from that kind of a deal.