Zhou Enlai famously said in the 1970s that it was too early to judge the impacts of the French Revolution. There is a dispute about the context of that statement, but you get the point. We need some distance to gain perspective.
The Iraq War, along with the Great Recession and the election of a black president, poisoned American politics by discrediting the CDs and turning the GOP into a reactionary sandbox. But what about Iraq?
Prior to the war, Iraq was a brutal military dictatorship run for the benefit of the Sunni minority. Today, it is Lebanon with oil; the parties are sectarian, Iran has way too much influence, militias rule the streets, and the government just funnels jobs and money to the well-connected in order to keep the peace. Demands for competent government have all come to a dead end. Climate change and the declining value of oil will only make matters worse. There is more freedom than there was under Saddam, but very little hope here.
My prediction is as it was–the power vacuum will ultimately be filled by the military. Iraq will end up where it was, only this time, the Shiites will rule.