Rick Scott, the party’s most prominent CL, and Josh Hawley, its best known “national conservative,” aren’t running for president. That means the scope of disagreement on the issues among the candidates will be relatively narrow. Since the candidates will all be looking for votes from the Reactionary and PBP factions of the party, the real questions will involve their ability to create bridges between the two factions.
For all that, there will be some genuine disputes, including the following:
- UKRAINE: Trump openly supports Putin and despises Ukraine; DeSantis dismisses Putin as a problem; the rest of the candidates will probably be openly pro-Ukraine. Advantage, the others.
- ABORTION: All of the candidates will support new restrictions on abortion, of course, but they will probably disagree on a national ban, exceptions, and the length of the legal abortion window. Mike Pence will undoubtedly take the hardest line and win millions of pro-life votes; the others will be all over the map.
- CLIMATE CHANGE: Trump will say it’s a complete fraud. The others will probably acknowledge its existence, but insist nothing can be done without wrecking the economy. The latter position is closer to the position held by the median GOP voter, but it remains to be seen whether moderation on this issue can attract votes.
- AGRICULTURE AND TARIFFS: Trump will say his Chinese tariffs were a complete success. Iowa voters may beg to differ, which leaves an opening for the other candidates.
- IMMIGRATION: Trump will never let any opponent take a more extreme position on the border than he does. He will probably advocate for family separation again. Will the others follow, or simply criticize Biden without proposing any real alternatives? If the latter, will the base punish them for their equivocation? My guess is yes.
- ENTITLEMENTS: We know Trump fully understands that the base supports Social Security and Medicare. He will never support cuts, regardless of what the donor class wants. What about the others? Expect vague statements about the need to “save” the programs, but no commitments on cuts, in an attempt to bridge the gap between the PBPs and the Reactionaries.
- TAX CUTS: Republicans have to have a new tax cut warming up in the bullpen, don’t they?
What you won’t hear is a debate on wokeness. There isn’t one in the GOP.