Let’s go with the Ukraine/World War I analogy for a minute. The abortive dash to Kyiv stands in for the failure of the Schlieffen Plan in 1914. The subsequent indecisive campaign in the Donbas looks a lot like the Race to the Sea and trench warfare in 1915. It’s now 1916. What does history say Putin will do?
1916 was the year the German military essentially took control of the government away from the Kaiser, transformed the economy to support the war, and completely mobilized the population to fight the Allies. Putin has already started down that road with his draft. The analogy breaks down somewhat with the economy, however; on the one hand, in spite of the punishing economic sanctions, Russia isn’t facing the equivalent of the British blockade, while on the other hand, Russia probably doesn’t have the existing industrial capacity to start cranking out all of the war material that it needs. As a result, Putin is trying to buy ammunition and weapons on the world market with his oil profits. That can only go so far; NATO’s productive capacity is far greater than his. Time is not on his side.
If we get to 1917, the analogy tells us Putin will escalate by attacking NATO supply lines; that would be the equivalent of unrestricted submarine warfare. Let’s hope it doesn’t go that far.