Phase 1 was the lightning assault on Kyiv, which, of course, turned into a complete debacle. Phase 2 was rolling thunder in the Donbas area, which started promisingly, but was partly reversed by superior Ukrainian tactics and new NATO weapons. Phase 3 is the use of diplomacy and the withholding of gas supplies during the winter to break NATO’s resistance. Every indication suggests that approach will fail, too. What will Putin try in Phase 4?
I don’t think he has any new ideas, so he will repackage old ones. My guess is that he will try to update his battlefield tactics and spread the Ukrainians out by threatening to open several new fronts. The decisive battle, if there is one, will probably take place in the Donbas, because that is where Putin has had the most success.
Will it work? We’ll see. The bottom line is that the Russians have a long history of fighting ineptly at first but learning from their mistakes. This is no time for complacency.