Month: November 2022

I’ve decided not to watch any of the election coverage tomorrow, because nothing good will come of it, and the truly final results won’t be known, in all likelihood, until Wednesday. I will deal with the new reality once it is fully defined.

When I do come to terms with it, here are some of the less visible issues that will be of interest:

1. WILL BIDEN’S PANDERS WORK? In particular, will young people who benefit from the student debt write-off show their appreciation by showing up and voting? I’m guessing not.
2. WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE 2020 ELECTION DENIERS? WILL THEY WIN, AND WILL THEY CLAIM FRAUD IF THEY DON’T? This is a warm-up for the more serious crisis in 2024.
3. BY HOW MUCH DOES DESANTIS WIN? He needs a crushing victory to set himself up as a viable 2024 presidential candidate. He’ll probably get it. If that sets up the GOP for a monumental Trump-DeSantis battle in the primaries, so much the better.

I have previously estimated that Biden’s spending programs are responsible for about two percent of our inflation rate. Most studies have reached a similar conclusion. From the perspective of an economist, then, the pertinent question is whether the rapid recovery and the decline in the unemployment rate justified the additional inflation. Reasonable observers can disagree on that point.

The issue, however, is not being presented that way. The Republicans are suggesting that all of our inflation was caused by spending, which is patently untrue. Worse, they are getting little pushback from the left.

We would still have above average inflation without the spending programs. If that had occurred, the GOP would still be blaming Biden, with no justification. That, of course, shows that the GOP criticism is opportunistic and devoid of any intellectual content, a point that is further supported by the right’s vacuous “solutions” to the problem.

Inflation makes winners as well as losers, as I noted in previous posts. The public’s loathing of it, however, seems pretty universal. Why?

For several reasons. First of all, most Americans who are younger than I am have never experienced it before. The novelty of it bites. Second, it impacts everyone, and on a daily basis. That is not true of unemployment. Third, it is unpredictable, and so makes a mockery of financial planning. Finally, it is natural for people to apply the wrong baseline out of a natural sense of optimism. If your wages go up, but so does the cost of living, you will probably think you were entitled to the raise, and that the increased costs are a form of injustice, not the creation of an equilibrium.

A few days ago, Biden gave a speech in which he warned Americans against voting for 2020 election deniers. The GOP accused him of being “divisive.” Was there any justice in this accusation?

Yes, but in a totally meaningless way. Elections are exercises in division. The unity part is supposed to come afterwards.

It is true that the Democrats are effectively attempting to split the remaining responsible Republican politicians and voters from the “burn it down” caucus. That serves two purposes: to win elections; and to save liberal democracy in America. The two objectives are completely consistent at this point, since the GOP as a whole is willing to let the “burn it down” crowd drive the bus in order to maintain party unity.

This time, unlike last time, Biden did not conflate differences on policy with attacks on liberal democracy. Whether the speech did any good is open to question, but its appropriateness is not.

It has been a big week for reactionary populists. Bibi won, but Bolsonaro lost. This follows on the heels of Meloni’s victory in Italy, and Le Pen’s near miss in France. What can we conclude from these clearly related events?

Reactionary populism is unquestionably a world-wide–not just an American–phenomenon. Traditional conservatives are being eclipsed by populists all over the world. It is happening in both presidential and parliamentary systems, and in countries with vastly different cultures. So what is the common denominator?

Economic failure–in particular, the impacts of globalization, technological change, and immigration on relatively unskilled male workers. Reactionary populism is, at its root, an economic phenomenon.

Bibi, apparently, is back. Hot damn! Just what we need: a norm-breaking right-wing populist who wants to conspire with the GOP to force America to bomb Iran. Don’t we have better things to do right now?

Mostly fortunately for us, the world has changed significantly since Bibi left office. America is already very busy dealing with Russia and China. Israel and Saudi Arabia have an evolving, de facto alliance; neither has done anything for us with Ukraine. Finally, the ayatollahs are in trouble in Iran. There is no way Biden is either going to sign an agreement with the Iranian government or send in the bombers as long as a reasonable possibility of regime change exists.

I think the bottom line here is that events are driving us to disengage from the Middle East. I suspect Biden will tell the Israelis and Saudis to deal with Iran by themselves. We can only fight so many wars at one time.

2011 was the glory day for the CLs. Since the Reactionaries weren’t in complete control of the Republican Party, the locus of opposition to Obama was spending, not culture wars, rigged elections, and illiberal democracy. The CLs combined with the PBPs and the Reactionaries to force the Democrats to agree to spending cuts that hobbled the economic recovery for years. Heady times, indeed.

Today is different, because the Reactionaries are in control, and they have their own agenda. Fighting wokeness is in; spending cuts on programs that largely benefit white Christians are out. Paul Ryan has given way to Marjorie Taylor Greene. And so, while we are probably going to have a repeat (and worse) version of the debt crisis, the ransom will be different, and so will the outcome.

C: So, how do you guys feel about the GOP’s prospects for the midterms?

M: Great! The red wave arrives on November 8!

S: Great! We’re going to change everything! We’re going to burn it down!

M: Oh, God! Not that again!

C: What exactly do you mean by “burn it down?” What will the new GOP majority in the House actually do?

S: Well, first of all, we’ll pass a resolution saying the 2020 election was rigged, and that Trump is lawfully president.

M: Good luck with that. You won’t get a majority of the House to vote for it. You certainly won’t get the support of the Senate. And it would mean nothing, legally.

S: Next, we’ll pass a national ban on abortion. The bitches are out of control. We need to show them who’s boss, and get the blue states back under control.

M: You probably can’t get a House majority for that. In any event, Mitch won’t agree to abolish the filibuster when he knows Biden will veto it. And by the way, the “bitches,” as you call them, have the vote.

S: Next, we’ll start the impeachments, starting with Biden and Garland.

M: Blunders aren’t high crimes and misdemeanors. That would be a political disaster. It will turn all the swing voters against us for 2024.

S: Finally, we’ll demand huge cuts in spending on everyone except white Christians in exchange for lifting the debt ceiling. If Biden won’t budge, we’ll burn the markets down!

M: That’s what really worries me. Are you trying to destroy my investments?

S: They’re not my problem, bro. If rich elitists lose money, what concern is that of mine? It won’t impact me. I don’t have any investments. BURN IT DOWN!

M: I’m a car dealer, not a rich elitist. So are lots of other Republicans.

S: Doesn’t matter. Rich people are all the same to me. They all want to screw me over.

C: Mark, what do you think the GOP should do, once in power?

M: Leverage the debt ceiling to make the Trump individual tax cuts permanent. We need more incentives to get the economy moving.

S: See, you’re just a self-serving RINO. You won’t burn it down because you have too much to lose! Real Republicans don’t act like that. We know the system is completely corrupt, and has to be destroyed and rebuilt from scratch.

M: I think we’re done here.

The Iranian dissidents appear to lack any kind of formal organization, which is both a strength and a weakness. It is a strength in that the regime can’t decapitate the movement with a few arrests; it is a weakness because the movement doesn’t know how to get to Point B from Point A. Organization can do that for you. Just ask the Bolsheviks.

As I have noted previously, the regime will survive as long as it remains united. So far, it mostly has, but there are reports that a few cracks are showing. How can the movement exploit those cracks?

The most obvious opportunity to terminate the regime will come when the Supreme Leader dies. In the shorter run, it would probably take an act of extreme, stupid brutality on the part of the security forces that mobilizes all decent opinion against the regime. We’re not quite there yet.

One thing is for sure: the regime no longer has any legitimacy in the eyes of anyone but its leaders.

While most of the GOP commercials in North Carolina have focused on crime, a few of them have mentioned the need to secure our southern border. I heartily agree. We need to do far more to keep those reactionaries from South Carolina from overrunning the Old North State.

(rimshot)

Readers of this blog will know that I support some forms of affirmative action and oppose others. I would acknowledge, however, that a reasonable observer could say that, in 2022, the drawbacks of affirmative action exceed its benefits. It is Exhibit A in the reactionary argument that government is hostile to the values and interests of ”real Americans.” It is just too divisive.

But that is a judgment call for Congress, state and local governments, admissions officers, and the electorate to make, not the Supreme Court. There is nothing in the legislative history or the text of the Fourteenth Amendment or any of the Civil Rights Acts that justifies putting any particular time limit on affirmative action programs. To do so, then, is the worst kind of judicial activism. It is the height of arrogance.