Month: November 2022

Opposition to abortion, which used to be a unifying idea among Republicans, has become a wedge issue after Dobbs. The party has two factions: genuine pro-lifers, who won’t brook any thought of compromise, but who typically are open to improvements in the welfare state for the benefit of women; and pragmatists, who will only push the envelope far enough to remain in power, and who have no interest in expanding the welfare state for anyone. How will DeSantis try to bridge the gap?

Trump, based on his public statements and his past behavior, is a pragmatist. DeSantis consequently risks nothing by taking the same position. His actions in Florida–supporting further, but relatively mild, restrictions–are consistent with my prediction. He will give us lots of pro-life rhetoric to keep the base happy, but deliver little in practice.

Some commentators think the 2024 GOP primaries will resemble those of 2016, with Trump running in his own lane and the right-wing establishment fragmented by a large number of candidates. Are they right?

Maybe–the number of legitimate opposition candidates remains to be seen. That said, the dynamics of the primary season will be completely different this time. In 2016, if you weren’t paying attention, you could believe that Trump was a brilliant outsider businessman, unencumbered by ideology, who could and would make deals to make America great again. No one will make that mistake this time around. Trump will be running purely to vindicate his outrageous behavior in office and to avenge himself on anyone who didn’t give him his unquestioning support. There will be nothing in the package for the American people–not even those in his party.

What a difference 18 years makes! In 2004, George W. Bush did everything he could to put anti-gay rights measures on state ballots, because he knew that anything related to LGBTQ was a wedge issue for Democrats and drove up turnout among white Christians. In 2022, 12 GOP senators voted for a gay marriage bill. Gay marriage is now a wedge issue for the GOP.

How will DeSantis try to bridge the gap in his party? He won’t, because he’s too closely identified with the anti side, what with his “groomer” statements and all. He will use the issue to inflame the base and hope that it doesn’t hurt him too much in the general election, if he gets that far. He will take comfort in the results of the Florida election. He probably shouldn’t; America is not Florida.

The midterm election was an unequivocal victory for liberal democracy in America. The most prominent 2020 election deniers lost, and lacked either the ability or the nerve to bring their partisans out on the street to overturn the results. Does that mean the danger is over?

No, for two reasons. First, as I noted in a series about a year ago, the real risk of a truly rigged election is at the state legislature level, and the “independent state legislature theory” is alive and well at the Supreme Court until proven otherwise. Second, Trump has a unique emotional connection with the violent right-wing extremists, and the presidency, unlike any other state or federal office, is worth an insurrection, from the reactionary point of view.

In short, this story won’t be over until we see what happens in 2024.

As we know only too well, Trump practically worships Putin, and loathes Ukraine. While the faction of his party that would follow him over a cliff has fallen into line, the mainstream did not; as a result, GOP leaders consistently tied themselves in knots trying to justify his behavior without looking too hypocritical. But what happens in the 2024 primaries? What will DeSantis say?

Ukraine is a bit of a wedge issue for the GOP. DeSantis will have to find a way to provide strong support for the Ukrainian government without alienating the crazoids more than necessary. One imagines he will do this by demanding more accountability in how the money is spent.

Opposition to Russia is deep in the DNA of most Republican voters. If DeSantis manages to pull off the high wire act, this will be a winning issue for him against Trump, who is way too compromised to find his way back to safety.

The answer to a bad guy with a gun isn’t, it seems, a good guy with a gun; it’s a brave gay guy without one.

UPDATE: It turns out the guy who took the gunman down was a vet, and wasn’t gay. However, he did have some assistance from a drag queen.

BEAT HIM

He told us, “Don’t you ever come around here.”

“Don’t want to see your face, you better disappear.”

The fire’s in his eyes and his words are really clear

So beat him, just beat him.

___________

You better run, you better do what you can.

You gotta take on Trump, the whiny macho man.

You wanna be tough, better do what you can

So beat him, or our lives will be bad.

_____________

Just beat him (beat him), beat him (beat him).

Trump just needs to be defeated.

Showing how evil and sick is your fight.

It doesn’t matter if you’re left or right.

Just beat him.

Beat him.

_____________

You have to show him that you’re really not scared.

He’s playing with our lives, this ain’t no truth or dare.

He’ll kick you, then he’ll beat you

Then he’ll tell you it’s fair.

So beat him, or our lives will be bad.

_________________

Just beat him (beat him), beat him (beat him).

Trump just needs to be defeated.

Showing how evil and sick is your fight.

It doesn’t matter if you’re left or right.

Just beat him.

Beat him.

__________

Parody of “Beat It” by Michael Jackson

The one thing we know for sure about Ron DeSantis is that he really, really hates woke people. He spent the last year of his life doing his best to deprive them of their constitutional rights. It’s his brand. The base loves him for it.

But let’s face it–bashing trans athletes is a teeny, tiny part of being president. Vastly larger issues loom. Where does he stand on fiscal issues? Would he cut entitlements? What about Ukraine and China? Would he actually do something about climate change? And so on.

The Hungarian Candidate hasn’t said much about any of this in public, so he’s relatively free, within the constraints of his reactionary ideology, to take positions designed to appeal either to the red base or to the moderate sweet spot in the electorate. His choices will have a significant impact on his ability to win first the primaries and then the general election. They matter, a lot.

Over the next week or so, I will be looking at these choices. I will conclude by giving both DeSantis and Trump some unsolicited advice on how to beat the other. Chances are, they won’t be listening.

What can we expect if Trump wins in 2024? You’ve probably read at least one of the books about his administration–in particular, about how the people around him did their best to restrain and nullify his worst impulses. Now, imagine what it would have been like without those people, and with a man on golf cart who has a better idea how to ride a horse. That’s what will happen if he isn’t stopped.

The Democrats will still retain control of the Senate even if Herschel Walker, in spite of his innumerable personal weaknesses, somehow wins the runoff in December. Does that mean the runoff doesn’t matter?

No, for reasons that have more to do with 2024 than 2022. This time around, the playing field was tilted towards the Democrats, because the Republicans were defending a large majority of seats; in 2024, however, the Democrats will face challenges in Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia (yes, Manchin is still better than the alternative). As a result, if you were a betting man, you would put your money on GOP control of the Senate after the next election regardless of the outcome of the presidential race.

Having an extra seat in the Senate today will help after 2024. Even if the GOP has nominal control, Collins and Murkowski will still operate as swing voters for some purposes, so 49 seats wouldn’t be a disaster. Victory in Georgia would be a step in the right direction.

The FBI Director had a difficult decision to make prior to the 2016 election. If he followed protocol and refused to make any public statements about the Clinton e-mail investigation, and Clinton subsequently won the election, he knew the Trump camp would go nuts, and the reputation of the FBI and the government in general would suffer for it. If he didn’t, he would be setting a precedent for the FBI inappropriately interfering in the electoral process. What should he do?

As we know, he decided to go public, because he assumed Clinton would win the election, anyway. That didn’t turn out too well.

Today, Merrick Garland faces a similar choice. Should he indict Trump, and make the ensuing criminal case a huge part of the man on golf cart’s campaign against the “deep state” over the next two years? On balance, it would probably strengthen–not weaken–the far right. Or should he let Ron DeSantis do the dirty work for him, and keep the DOJ out of it, even if it sends the dangerous message that Trump and his followers are above the law?

There are no good choices here. I’m betting he picks Option 2, which is looking more viable after the midterms.

UPDATE: About an hour after I posted this, Garland found another way around the problem by appointing a special counsel. Trump, of course, is describing this effort to depoliticize the process as a political hatchet job.

Realistically, after the attack on her husband, it was time for her to go. But what a ride it has been! She will go down in history, not just as one of the great Speakers in history, but as the single most successful politician of her age. She was always there when Obama and Biden needed her. One way or the other, she could always find the votes.

If you don’t think that’s impressive, wait until you see how Kevin McCarthy performs as Speaker. His idea of leadership is to let the inmates run the asylum.

If the Murdochs have finally and irrevocably turned on Trump, it won’t trouble Tucker Carlson much; he’s more of a reactionary ideologue than a fan of the man on golf cart. Laura Ingraham is insignificant. But what happens to Sean Hannity? He’s completely identified with Trump. He’s Boswell to Trump’s Dr. Johnson; Bundini Brown to his Muhammad Ali; Sancho Panza to his Quixote. How in the world is he going to make a U-turn?

It’s going to be really hard. Poor little guy.

As we know only too well, Donald Trump demands complete, unquestioning loyalty from his supporters, while giving none of his own. Not to the United States, and certainly not to the GOP, which he sees only as an instrument answerable to him. What happens if the intellectual and political leadership of the party turns on him, and openly supports a different candidate during the primaries?

He’s not going to take that lightly. The Democrats have only had limited success dividing the crazoids from the more respectable wing of the GOP, but Trump could do the dirty work for them. For that, for the first time, he would deserve our thanks.

A note to my readers: I will be out of town until Friday. Regular posts will resume at that time.

“Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.” Something to be grateful for this Thanksgiving.