I was looking at an NYT map which showed the margins of victory in all of the House races this morning. What I found, at least for my home states, was that there were only a few races in which the loser was even in shouting distance of the winner. What does that tell us about our system, and the future?
The combination of natural sorting, gerrymandering, and the predominance of culture wars means that wave elections are an endangered species. The pandemic and the resulting economic slump didn’t do it in 2020, and inflation didn’t do it this time. There just aren’t enough marginal seats, and enough voters willing to support change for economic reasons, to make it work.
Bill Clinton was famous for the statement “It’s the economy, stupid.” That was true when he was running, but it isn’t anymore. The result of this election proves it.
What could change the equilibrium? A decision by Trump to burn down the GOP if it doesn’t fall into line. It could happen. I will discuss that further at a later date.