It is, of course, highly ironic that the leader of the Brothers of Italy is a sister. That observation aside, what can we expect from the new government?
Four things:
- We will see lots of rhetoric and performative actions on illegal immigration and wokeness. Actually accomplishing anything meaningful will be a different matter.
- There will be a significant push within the EU to loosen fiscal rules. The German government, which approved massive new borrowing and spending programs for the pandemic, and which currently faces a recession, probably won’t resist too much this time. When the cost of borrowing goes up, however, the EU won’t be there to help. The new government will have to face the markets on its own.
- Meloni will probably make some effort to loosen sanctions on Russia, but won’t get very far. She will be too dependent on EU money to make much of a splash here.
- Italian governments, almost by definition, are weak and unstable. Since it is unlikely that the leaders of the other right-wing parties will embrace their subordinate status for very long, this one will be even weaker and more unstable than most.