Xi actually agreed to leave China to meet Putin in Uzbekistan a few days ago. They had a lot to discuss, and Uzbekistan was the perfect place to do it.
I was going to post one of my hypothetical meeting transcripts, but I decided it wasn’t worth the effort, because it would have sounded exactly like the last one. Putin was begging for economic and military support and arguing that autocrats everywhere are in danger if he loses in Ukraine. For his part, Xi, who is ambivalent about the whole thing, provided soothing words of support, but little more.
Putin didn’t have to invade Ukraine. He could have relied on his ability to turn the gas on and off to get what he wants. Alternatively, he could have played NATO against China to identify the highest bidder. Instead, he put himself in a position where he has no options except to be Xi’s junior partner and supplicant. That will have consequences beyond the war.
The Stans historically have been an area of predominantly Russian influence. China is starting to penetrate them with its economic might, and Putin is in no position to resist. As a result, when the history books are written, Putin won’t just be the guy who launched a bloody, misbegotten imperialist war, drove the most productive elements out of his country, caused Sweden and Finland to join NATO, and lost the best customers for one of his country’s few valuable products; he will also be the man who lost the Stans.