Here are five possible outcomes of the midterm elections, with the consequences that will follow:
- BLUE WAVE: The Democrats hang on to the House and win at least two additional Senate seats. The discussion that follows all revolves around repealing the filibuster. If it happens–and it probably will–the new Congress passes a boatload of progressive legislation, most notably on voting rights.
- STATUS QUO: The Democrats maintain control of both houses, but do not pick up Senate seats. Not much happens in the next two years. There is turmoil over the debt ceiling, but Mitch has enough clout to keep the lights on, given that there is no mandate to play hardball with Biden.
- DIVIDED GOVERNMENT: The Democrats barely keep control of the Senate, but lose the House. Implausibly viewing the election results as a mandate for right-wing radicalism, the tiny GOP majority immediately goes to work in the House, conducting investigations of Hunter Biden (among others), passing a national abortion ban, impeaching cabinet officers, and refusing to lift the debt ceiling. Financial chaos ensues, to the delight of the “burn it down” caucus. Biden consequently gets to run against both Trump and McCarthy in 2024.
- TINY RED WAVE: The GOP has small majorities in both houses. This is the same as Scenario #3, except that McConnell refuses to confirm any new judges. Biden has a second clear target to run against in 2024.
- BIG RED WAVE: The GOP wins a large majority in the House and a genuine working majority in the Senate (Collins and Murkowski are the GOP equivalents of Sinema and Manchin). The result is the same as #4, except that McCarthy is able to ignore the crazoids and keep the lights on in the interest of winning in 2024.
The most likely outcome? I predicted #3 last year. That prediction is looking pretty good today.