Due to relatively low turnout, midterm elections are primarily about base mobilization, not attracting uncommitted voters. That is not to say, however, that swing votes do not matter. The best way to attract them is through the use of wedge issues.
The principal GOP wedge issues are:
- Donald Trump and January 6;
- Abortion; and
- Climate change.
The Democrats have been trying to split the insurrectionist wing of the GOP away from the rest of the party for the last two years. Biden’s “MAGA Republicans” speech, for better or worse, was just the last of these efforts. Abortion is definitely splitting “pro-life” realos from fundis. Finally, some GOP voters are starting to accept that climate change is a real thing. It may be possible to split them from the mainstream in some locations.
If the Democrats have any sense, they will be focusing on these issues during the campaign.